IRONWOODStrategic Advisors

Insights · Growth & Infrastructure

The next 20 years of Southeast Valley growth run through Queen Creek, San Tan Valley and Florence

The East Valley is running out of room. The growth is moving south and east, and two freeway projects will decide how fast it gets there. If they get built, this whole area will explode.

By Jon Willis, Founder & Designated Broker · · 7 min read

Growth follows two things: open land and roads. Gilbert is close to built out. Mesa's east side is filling in fast. Look at a map of where the land is and where the roads are going, and you'll find the next frontier for the Phoenix area. It's Queen Creek, San Tan Valley and Florence.

This is a market outlook, not a forecast with a guarantee. It comes from 27 years of watching East Valley land get planned, sold and built. Over that time, every big jump in value has followed the same pattern. First come the rooftops, then the roads. Then the commercial land catches up, and it usually catches up all at once.

The rooftops are already here

  • San Tan Valley is now a town of more than 100,000 people. Voters approved incorporation in August 2025 and the town became official on September 17, 2025. It was the largest incorporation by population in Arizona history. In May 2026 it joined the Maricopa Association of Governments, which gives it a seat at the table where regional transportation money is planned.
  • Queen Creek has been one of the fastest-growing towns in the country. Census estimates showed it adding about 8% in a single year, from 2023 to 2024. That made it Arizona's fastest-growing town. The town now expects growth to slow for the next few years, which is normal for a community that has absorbed this much this fast.
  • Florence is growing toward San Tan Valley. New neighborhoods are rising on its northwest side. The county seat that most people only drove through is turning into a place people live.
  • Pinal County as a whole has tripled since 2000. It went from about 180,000 residents to an estimated 539,000 in 2025, and it's among the fastest-growing counties in the nation.

The people are already here. What this area is still missing is the roads.

The roads are the missing piece

Right now, most of San Tan Valley and Florence gets to jobs and freeways on surface streets like Ironwood, Ellsworth, Gantzel and Hunt Highway. Anyone who drives them at rush hour knows the problem. A community of 100,000+ people with no freeway through it is a community that's been held back. Two projects could change that.

1. State Route 24 (the Gateway Freeway)

SR 24 runs about 5 miles today, from Loop 202 near Mesa Gateway Airport east to Ironwood Drive. It's an interim road, with traffic lights at the major crossings. ADOT plans to widen it, build bridges at Williams Field, Crismon, Signal Butte and Meridian, and rebuild the Ironwood interchange. Construction is planned to start in late 2026, partly paid for by Proposition 479, the transportation tax Maricopa County voters passed in 2024.

The bigger prize is east of Ironwood. A plan has been studied to carry SR 24 into Pinal County to meet a new north-south freeway. ADOT is clear that the extension "is not currently funded so there is no timeframe."

2. The North-South Corridor (State Route 505)

This is the one that would remake the map. ADOT picked a final 55-mile route in 2021. It would run from US 60 in Apache Junction south through the Queen Creek and San Tan Valley area, past Florence and Coolidge, to Interstate 10 near Eloy. Detailed design studies are underway now. The northern segment, from US 60 to about Arizona Farms Road, is expected to wrap up around 2027, and the southern segment around 2028.

Here's the hard truth: there is no committed money to build any of it. ADOT has said so plainly. A freeway on paper is not a freeway. But the route is chosen, the studies are moving and the population that justifies it is already here.

Why these two roads matter so much

Today, most traffic between Tucson and the East Valley has to squeeze through I-10 and the Gila River area, or wind through Florence and San Tan Valley on two-lane roads. The North-South Corridor would give the whole region a second spine. Pair it with an SR 24 extension and you get something this area has never had: a direct freeway link from San Tan Valley and Florence to Mesa Gateway Airport, Loop 202, US 60 and I-10.

When that happens, three things follow:

  1. Commute times drop, and housing demand jumps. A 45-minute drive becomes a 20-minute drive. Buyers who wrote this area off as "too far" take a second look.
  2. Retail and services finally catch up. Today, many residents drive to Queen Creek, Gilbert or Mesa for groceries, dining and medical care. Freeway interchanges are where shopping centers, hospitals and offices get built. Retailers follow traffic counts, and freeways deliver them.
  3. Industrial and employment land comes alive. A freeway to I-10 makes Pinal County land a real option for distribution, manufacturing and the suppliers that cluster around big employers. Queen Creek has already shown what's possible. LG Energy Solution built a large battery manufacturing campus there, with production planned for 2026.

The risks are real too

Growth is not automatic. The biggest risk is funding: if the freeways stay on paper for another 20 years, the area keeps growing but stays congested, and values rise more slowly. Water is the other. Arizona's Colorado River supply is shrinking, and new subdivisions in parts of Pinal County have faced hard limits on groundwater. Land that has a secure water supply will be worth much more than land that doesn't. Higher interest rates can also slow the pace of new building for a few years at a time.

None of that changes the long-term direction. The Phoenix area keeps growing, and the land to the south and east is where it has room to go. The question is speed, not direction.

What this means for property owners and buyers

  1. Know where the corridors are. If you own land near the planned SR 24 extension or the North-South Corridor route, find out exactly where it sits relative to the alignment and the likely interchanges. A quarter mile can be the difference between farmland value and commercial value.
  2. Don't sell too early, and don't hold on hope alone. Values tend to jump at three moments: when the route is final, when construction money is committed and when ground breaks. Selling before the funding news can leave a lot of money on the table. But holding forever on a promise has its own cost, too.
  3. Check your water and zoning now. A buyer will pay more for land with a clear water supply and zoning that fits the future use. Getting that work done ahead of time puts you in a stronger position.
  4. Watch San Tan Valley's new town government. A brand new town is writing its first general plan, zoning rules and economic development priorities. Owners who show up early help shape what gets built.
  5. Investors: think 10 to 20 years. This is a long game. The best returns go to buyers who get in ahead of the roads and have the patience to wait for them.

Twenty years from now, I think people will look at Queen Creek, San Tan Valley and Florence the way we look at Gilbert and Chandler today. If ADOT connects SR 24 and builds the North-South Corridor, that whole area will explode. The smart move is to understand what you own, or what you want to own, before that happens.

Sources

This article reflects the author's opinion and is general market commentary, not legal or investment advice. Road projects described as planned or proposed are not funded or guaranteed unless stated.